![]() ![]() This suggests that fundamentals may be stronger than they appear, with no broad retreat from corporate globalization underwa Global information and people flows: still advancing ![]() multinationals to repatriate earnings held abroad. tax policy changes, which have prompted U.S. However, a large part of the recent FDI drop was due to U.S. While early capital flow data for 2019 suggest some stabilization, a robust recovery on these metrics remains elusive. In fact, the pullback in global connectedness was entirely driven by shrinking international capital flows, specifically foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio equity investment. Nonetheless, current forecasts suggest that trade intensity is on track for only a modest decline through 2020.Ĭapital was the only pillar of the index that declined in 2018. While trade volume growth is likely to remain positive this year, it is not expected to keep pace with GDP growth. In the first half of this year, the share of global output traded across national borders fell. However, this strength did not extend into 2019. Trade and capital flows: lower, but no sign of a collapseĪs the GCI update shows, trade flows continued to intensify through the early stages of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018. ![]()
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